Every yesterday in Syria is better than today, and each today will remain less bad than tomorrow. It is only hope — a hopeless hope — that gives Syrians a reason to live, just in case they were not killed in the regional war fought by them on their land.

It is getting more complicated. The political and military wings of the opposition are disengaged, those on the ground each think one way, and the ones in hotels and behind desks think in another way — and often not at all alike.

Politicians can negotiate as much as they want, they can issue statements, give orders, but nothing is going to be implemented — the real decision-makers are in Syria, raising their guns and fighting different wars between Aleppo and Daraa.

The opposition’s military wings, though united by blood, are also divided because of differing agendas. It is a game of survival. Most of the opposition’s fighting brigades are losing ground across the country either to government forces and its allies, or to what used to be the strongest, most organized and most controversial faction in the opposition, Jabhat al-Nusra.

Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliated faction, has a strong presence around Syria. They have been a nightmare to government forces in several areas around the war-torn country. A group of Syrian jihadists, backed by brigades of foreign fighters, some Arabs and others from around the globe, Jabhat al-Nusra’s emergence was a turning point in the Syrian revolution’s path.

But Jabhat al-Nusra’s yesterday seems to be much better than today. A serious split is threatening the group’s unity at a very crucial and sensitive time, given the preparations and negotiations for a US-Russia sponsored conference on Syria — in which Jabhat al-Nusra will have no part and will want to spoil.

Why are brothers in arms, ideology and blood fighting? Weeks ago, when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic state of Iraq (al-Qaeda in Iraq), called on Abu Mohammad al-Golani, Jabhat al-Nusra’s leader, to merge under one name, the answer came back negative.

Golani instead linked his group directly to al-Qaeda’s general leader Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahri. He clearly wanted to say that Jabhat al-Nusra is just another direct branch from al-Qaeda, not a franchise.

There were no direct comments from Zawahri’s side and neither from Baghdadi. Later on, there were conflicting reports on Golani’s well-being.  First, he was reported killed amid a fierce battle in the countryside just outside Damascus, then it was announced that he sustained injuries. Less than a week after Golani’s injury, news of Baghdadi’s arrival in Syria circulated. He came to Aleppo along with hundreds of Arab and foreign fighters. Syria is now an international land of jihad, a scene similar to the one in Iraq when Abu Mosab Zarqawi arrived. According to an al-Qaeda affiliated Lebanese cleric, the enemy this time is not the United States but the “Persian occupation by Alawite, Hezbollah and Iranian forces,” and if there was a Western invasion, “the mujahedeen [holy warriors] are there to defend the ummah [nation].”

In the wake of the new givens, Golani’s role is expected to diminish and Jabhat al-Nusra’s main brigades will join the new “Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant,” the new state Baghdadi announced on April 8, 2013. Baghdadi’s speech then included many points that were to be understood as warnings to Golani. He said, “It is time to declare to the Levant and to the world that Jabhat al-Nusra is simply a branch of the Islamic state of Iraq,” and that Golani was dispatched from Iraq to Syria to help raise the basis of the new branch there.

The most important thing here is that Baghdadi’s speech came only two days after al-Qaeda leader Zawahri released an audio message calling for unification of the jihad in Syria, another indication the move was already planned and the announcement by Baghdadi was only to give Golani a wake-up call. As already known, Golani refused the alliance by pledging loyalty to Zawahri directly. The latter did not respond because Golani practically did not obey his orders — orders that are not casual orders but part of a new vision Zawahri presented in his last audio message.

On that occasion, Zawahri spoke about the new document issued by “Qaedat al-Jihad” — al-Qaeda’s official name — under the title “Nusrat al-Islam” — or supporting Islam — which seem to be presenting a new approach by al-Qaeda. Zawahri practically announced the end of the “al-Qaeda franchise” by saying: “The first matter is that all parties should focus on combining their forces and unity. The second matter is that all parties should be aware of the objectives of this unity and accord.”

Golani failed to understand the headquarters’ message and he had to pay the price. The opposition now has to understand the new status of Jabhat al-Nusra, or whatever name it will be given. It is no longer part of any revolutionary struggle for Syria — it is now part of the global jihad.

This is a mixed message for the more moderate opposition forces backed by the United States and its allies. On the one hand, it helps somewhat to draw a clearer line between them and al-Qaeda affiliates.  But even that is hard to say. More problematic, the Western-backed opposition will have to fight another battle — this time a fiercer battle — with even more divided radical forces. Once again, a new saving stick for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime, and another sign that a military solution is a fantasy.

The Lebanese channel al-Mayadeen broadcast the video of the confiscated vehicle on Monday.

The report also said that military uniforms as well as wiretapping and jamming equipment were found in the vehicle, but it did not display the items.

The Syrian army has restored security in al-Qusayr in the central province of Homs, after taking back control of 50 percent of the city from foreign-backed militants.

The army said it has killed two militant commanders during the operation in the strategic city, which is located near the border with Lebanon.

Fierce battles are still going on in the city as the Syrian army continues its operations there, while large numbers of militants abandon their weapons and flee the city.

The Syrian army entered the strategic city from every front on Sunday following weeks of battle.

The Syrian army says it has also found Israeli-made rockets in a weapons cache seized from militants in Homs province.

At least 32 killed as rebel fighters clashed with mechanized Syrian army units, Hezbollah guerillas; ‘Most of the dead are civilians killed by the shelling,’ activist says

ynet 

Syrian troops supported by Hezbollah operatives launched an offensive to retake a major town near Lebanon from rebels on Sunday, the heaviest fighting yet involving Lebanese armed group, opposition activists said.

At least 32 people were killed when rebel fighters clashed with mechanized Syrian army units and Hezbollah guerillas in nine points in and around the town of Qusair, 10 km (six miles) from the border with Lebanon’s Bekaa valley, they said.

Speaking from Qusair, activist Hadi Abdallah said Syrian warplanes bombed Qusair in the morning and shells were hitting the town at a rate of up to 50 a minute.

“The army is hitting Qusair with tanks and artillery from the north and east while Hezbollah is firing mortar rounds and multiple rocket launchers from the south and west,” he said.

“Most of the dead are civilians killed by the shelling.”

The region near the Orontos River has been segregated into Sunni and Shiite villages in the civil war that grew out of protests against Syrian President Bashar Assad.

It is vital for Assad, who belongs to the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, to keep open a route from Shiite Hezbollah’s strongholds in the Bekaa to areas near Syria’s Mediterranean coast inhabited by co-religionist Alawites.

Opposition sources say Syria’s coastal region could serve as an Alawite statelet in case Assad falls in Damascus, in a potential fragmentation of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines that raises the prospect of many more deaths.

Sources in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley said shells fired by rebels hit the edges of the town of Hermel, a stronghold of Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, but no casualties were reported.

Syrian Television said the army was “leading an operation against terrorists in Qusair”, with troops reaching the town’s center.

“Our heroic forces are advancing toward Qusair and are chasing the remnants of the terrorists and have hoisted the Syrian flag on the municipality building. In the next few hours we will give you joyous news,” the television said.

The United Nations says at least 80,000 people have been killed in the conflict, which started with peaceful demonstrations against four decades of family rule by Assad and his late father.

The protests were met by bullets, sparking an armed uprising that turned into a civil war mainly pitting majority Sunnis against the Alawite sect, which has controlled Syria since the 1960s.

Times of Israel

Syrian President Bashar Assad on Saturday accused Israel of backing rebel groups, and said he wouldn’t step down before elections are held, rejecting a demand by the country’s opposition that any talks on ending the nation’s civil war lead to his ouster.

Israel provides Syria rebel groups with “logistical support and is even instructing them which targets to attack,” he said.

“For example, the rebels attacked a military site containing a radar installation that defends Syria from the penetration of foreign aircraft, especially from Israel,” he charged.

On Friday, Amos Gilad, a top Israeli Defense Ministry official, said Israel was not seeking to topple Assad, though unnamed Israeli officials have said Israel would bring him down were he to retaliate for any further airstrikes on advanced weaponry being transferred to Hezbollah via Damascus. israel carried out two such strikes earlier this month.

Assad’s comments to the Argentine newspaper Clarin were his first about his possible role in any political transition since the US and Russia agreed earlier this month to try to bring the two sides to the table at an international conference. Such a gathering is envisioned for next month, but no date has been set, and neither the Assad regime nor the Syrian National Coalition, the main Western-backed coalition group, has made a firm commitment to attend.

The Syrian president’s remarks highlighted the difficulties the US and Russia face in getting the two sides to agree on the terms of transition talks and brokering an end to Syria’s bloody civil war.

In the Syrian capital Damascus, meanwhile, a powerful explosion went off in the Ruken al-Deen neighborhood, killing three people and wounding five, Syrian state TV reported. It said the blast was caused by a car bomb and that experts are dismantling other explosives in the area.

More than 70,000 people have been killed and several million displaced since the uprising against Assad erupted in March 2011 and escalated into a civil war.

Assad has dismissed those trying to topple him as foreign-backed terrorists. Many in the political opposition say Assad and his inner circle cannot be expected to negotiate in good faith after they brutally suppressed peaceful protests.

In the interview with Clarin, Assad likened himself to the skipper of a ship riding Syria’s turbulent seas, saying “the country is in a crisis and when a ship faces a storm, the captain does not flee.”

“The first thing he does is face the storm and guide the ship back to safety,” Assad was quoted as saying by the newspaper. “I am not someone who flees from my responsibilities.”

An audio clip from the interview was posted on the Clarin website, with his Arabic comments dubbed into Spanish and translated into English by The Associated Press.

Times of London report quotes senior Israeli intelligence officer who ‘does not represent the government’s position,’ prime minister states.

Haaretz

A Friday report in the Times of London, according to which Israel prefers the regime of Bashar Assad than see a takeover of the country by rebel Islamist militants, is untrue, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a meeting of Likud ministers on Sunday.

“The statements attributed to an Israeli intelligence officer do not represent the Israeli government’s position,” Netanyahu said, according to a source present at the meeting.

The prime minister stressed that Israel is not intervening in the Syrian civil war and is not taking a position concerning who should rule the country.

The Israeli official told the Times: “Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos, and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there.”

According to the Times, the senior intelligence officer in the north of Israel said a weakened but stable Syria under Assad is not only better for Israel but for the region as a whole.

Another defense official was quoted saying it is more likely than initially estimated that Assad will remain in power.

“We originally underestimated Assad’s staying power and overestimated the rebels’ fighting power,” the source said.

The report in the Times comes a day after the United States said the Russian missile shipment to Syria will embolden Assad and prolong the conflict.

The American news network added that it “captured, for the very first time, Israeli commandos coming back from inside Syria on a mission.”

The report does not specify how or where the film has been captured. But it appears to be near the occupied Golan Heights. Israel has recently boosted military activities in the area.

The video raised some concerning aspects of Israel regime’s role in the 26-month-old conflict in Syria.

There have been no comments from Israeli officials on the report.

The report came as the Israeli regime has launched three unilateral strikes inside Syria since January.

Syria along with a number of regional countries has condemned the attacks as violation of sovereignty.

The Syria crisis began in March 2011, and many people, including large numbers of soldiers and security personnel, have been killed in the violence.

The Syrian government says that the chaos is being orchestrated from outside the country, and there are reports that a very large number of the militants are foreign nationals.

Agencies say they do not have the resources to cope with the number of refugees

bbc.co.uk

The UN’s refugee agency has said that more than 1.5 million people have fled the conflict in Syria.

Most have fled to Jordan and Lebanon, but not have all been registered yet, meaning the true total is likely to be far higher, according to the UNHCR.

The situation inside Syria has deteriorated dramatically over the past four months, according to the agency.

The UN estimates that 80,000 people have died in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

It says some 4.25 million have been displaced within the country.

“Refugees tell us the increased fighting and changing of control of towns and villages, in particular in conflict areas, results in more and more civilians deciding to leave,” UNHCR said in a statement.

The UNHCR says it has registered a million refugees since the beginning of this year alone, and that “the widening gap between the needs and resources available is a growing challenge”.

Early next month, UNHCR and non-governmental organisations are due to launch a “revised funding appeal” for the Syrian crisis.

Last month, children’s charity Unicef said it would have to scale back “life-saving” support in Jordan’s Zaatari camp if more money was not forthcoming.

‘Show of force’

Meanwhile, US media reported that Russia had sent sophisticated anti-ship missiles to Syria.

Top US military commander Gen Martin Dempsey said supplying the missiles was “an unfortunate decision”.

The shipment “will embolden the regime and prolong the suffering,” said Gen Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Without confirming details, Russia’s foreign minister said Russian supplies did not break any international rules.

It comes amid growing alarm that chemical weapons may be being used in Syria, something US President Barack Obama has said would be “a red line”. 

Russia is one of Syria’s few remaining allies and its major arms suppliers. Over the years, in contracts worth billions of dollars, it has sold thousands of tanks, artillery units, aircraft, helicopters and defence systems to Damascus.

Another US newspaper, the Wall Street Journal, reports that Moscow has deployed at least a dozen warships to patrol waters near the Russian naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus.

It quotes a senior US defence official as saying the deployment is a “show of force” by Moscow to demonstrate its commitment to the region.

Although there have been growing calls for arms to be channelled to the rebel fighters in Syria, there has so far been very limited enthusiasm in the West for outright military intervention.

But there is concern that the presence of sophisticated Russian-supplied weaponry will make it much harder to agree and carry out such intervention, implement a blockade or conduct targeted airstrikes in the future.

Israel is also concerned such weapons could fall into the hands of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which could use them to either attack Israel or defend itself against any Israeli assault.

In other developments on Friday:

• The campaign group Human Rights Watch said in a report that abandoned government security installations in the city of Raqqa contain evidence indicating arbitrary detention and torture was practiced there when it was under government control
• UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met Mr Lavrov in Sochi on Friday to discuss the plans for an international conference to try to find a way of ending the Syrian conflict, which would aim to bring together the Syrian opposition and members of President Bashar al-Assad’s government
• The man in charge of the UN’s plans for reconstruction in Syria after the conflict, Abdullah al-Dardari, has told the BBC that he estimated $60-80bn (£40-50bn) would be needed to rebuild what has been destroyed so far and to compensate for damage to the economy.

Moscow sent dozen or more warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Syria, Wall Street Journal reports. New York Times adds improved Yakhont missiles also sent to Syria. Lavrov meets UN’s Ban Ki-moon in Russia

Ynet

Russia has sent a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Syria, a buildup that US and European officials see as a newly aggressive stance meant partly to warn the West and Israel not to intervene in Syria’s bloody civil war, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

On Thursday, Syria’s official news agency SANA reported that five Russian warships had crossed the Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean Sea. A Russian Navy spokesperson said that this was the first time in decades that Pacific Ocean Russian warships sail in the area.

According to him, the Russian warships are heading to Cyprus. The Russian defense minister said: “The Russian Defense Ministry started setting up a special force of warships in the Mediterranean in order to protect Russia’s interests in the region.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times reported that Russia has sent advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria. The missiles are apparently an improved version of the Yakhonts, which Russia has previously provided to Syria, and have been outfitted with an advanced radar that makes them more effective.

Also Friday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said a proposed international conference on Syria should be held as soon as possible, but that no date had yet been agreed.

“We should not lose the momentum,” Ban said of a US-Russian proposal to bring the Syrian government and opposition representatives to a peace conference.

“There is a high expectation that this meeting should be held as soon as possible,” he said after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Lavrov agreed. “The sooner the better,” Lavrov told the joint news conference with Ban, who was due to meet President Vladimir Putin later on Friday.

Lavrov reiterated Russia’s view that Iran should be invited to the conference, which could complicate its organization because of potential opposition from the West.

On Thursday, Lavrov announced that Russia would remain committed to previously signed arms deal “regarding agreements pertaining to aerial defense weapons.”

This marks a failure by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who traveled to Russia earlier this week with the aim of dissuading Moscow from going ahead with the sale of S-300 missiles.

According to Lavrov, Russia will not sign any new deal with the Syrian government, but is nonethless obligated to previous commitments.

Ynet’s defense analyst Ron Ben-Yishai explains that the main reason for the growing tensions in Israel’s north is Iranian and Syrian desire to bolster Hezbollah.

Tehran officials believe that by the end of 2013 either Israel and the US or both will decide for or against a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran hopes to deter the West from making mounting a military operation by threatening Israel’s hinterland.